SpaceX CEO Elon Musk’s dream of building a human settlement on Mars within the next 30 years has sparked both excitement and skepticism. While the billionaire envisions a thriving colony on the red planet, experts and researchers argue that the realities of Mars make this vision highly unlikely anytime soon.

In their award-winning book, A City on Mars: Can We Settle Space, Should We Settle Space, and Have We Really Thought This Through?, Kelly and her cartoonist husband Zach Weinersmith dive deep into the challenges of life on Mars. The book, which won the 2024 Royal Society Trivedi Science Book Prize, paints a stark picture of the hurdles humans would face.

Mars is a planet of extremes, far more hostile than Earth. Its thin atmosphere provides no protection from harmful cosmic and solar radiation, which could increase the risk of cancer and cause cognitive issues over time. Unlike Earth, Mars lacks a strong magnetic field, leaving humans vulnerable to these dangers.

Additionally, the Martian soil is toxic, containing perchlorates – chemical compounds that can disrupt hormones and potentially harm human development. Kelly Weinersmith, a biologist, explained that these toxins could make growing food and sustaining human life incredibly difficult. She also said that here is no way Musk can take a million people to Mars in the next 30 years without a lot of people dying.

“If you want to do this, it’s got to be the slow work of generations to build up to a point where we could be self-sustaining on Mars,” she told CNN.

Mars’ weak gravity, which is just 40 percent of Earth’s, is another significant concern. Prolonged exposure to low gravity can lead to bone loss, muscle weakening, and potentially catastrophic complications for childbirth. “We have very little relevant data for how adults will do, let alone how having babies would work out” Kelly said.

The planet also experiences massive global dust storms, extreme temperature swings, and dangerous airborne particles, like regolith, which could damage equipment and harm human lungs.

Beyond the physical dangers, Mars’ distance from Earth adds another layer of difficulty. Extended communication delays due to the average distance between Earth and Mars of 225 million kilometers could have serious effects on managing emergencies.

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The authors also highlight the lack of legal clarity around space settlement. While the 1967 Outer Space Treaty outlines some principles, it doesn’t address modern concerns like resource ownership or territorial claims. With geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China, the Weinersmiths warn that a space race for Martian resources could lead to conflict.

Musk’s plan for a self-sustaining Martian city of one million people depends on advanced technologies, including closed-loop agricultural systems and robust infrastructure. However, the authors argue these systems are still in their early stages of development. “This kind of mission would require decades, if not generations, to achieve,” they said.

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Despite their skepticism, the Weinersmiths aren’t opposed to space exploration. Instead, they advocate for a slower, more deliberate approach. They suggest starting with research stations on the Moon to study how organisms adapt to space over multiple generations.

“I’d love to see humans land on Mars, explore, and return home within our lifetime,” Kelly said. But rushing into large-scale colonisation without understanding the risks, they warn, could lead to disaster.

As the Weinersmiths put it, “Leaving a warming Earth for Mars would be like leaving a messy room to live in a toxic waste dump.” Humanity’s focus, they argue, should be on addressing Earth’s challenges while advancing space exploration with caution and responsibility.